Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor — Süper Lig forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Erzurumspor
36%
Draw
30%
Samsunspor
35%
Expected goals
1.25–1.28
Erzurumspor · Samsunspor
Erzurumspor win 36% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (9.5%), 0–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Erzurumspor score at least twice in 36%; Samsunspor in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Samsunspor goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 14.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Erzurumspor goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 29% | 41% |
| Market reference | 36% | 30% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 30% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor | 2.70 | 2.62 | 2.50 | 2.71 | 2.62 | 2.63 | 2.55 | 2.60 | 2.43 | 2.71 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 3.32 | 3.15 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.18 | 2.99 | 3.32 1xBet |
| Samsunspor | 2.78 | 2.62 | 2.62 | 2.77 | 2.70 | 2.55 | 2.55 | 2.66 | 2.48 | 2.78 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Erzurumspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Amedspor | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Galatasaray | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Besiktas | 0–3 | L |
Samsunspor
| 17 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Rizespor | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Corum | 1–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Erzurumspor (Home · 3 matches) | Samsunspor (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Erzurumspor's home record; away stats use Samsunspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.