Erzurumspor vs Samsunspor — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Erzurumspor
37%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Samsunspor
33%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Erzurumspor win 36.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Erzurumspor win. Expected goals 1.28–1.26 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.6%), 1–0 (9.6%), 0–0 (9.4%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Erzurumspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Amedspor | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Galatasaray | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Besiktas | 0–3 | L |
Samsunspor
| 17 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Rizespor | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Fenerbahce | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Corum | 1–5 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Erzurumspor (Home · 5 matches) | Samsunspor (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Erzurumspor's home record; away stats use Samsunspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.