Erzurumspor vs Konyaspor — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Erzurumspor
40%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Konyaspor
31%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Erzurumspor win 39.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Erzurumspor win. Expected goals 1.48–1.27 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–0 (7.9%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Erzurumspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Amedspor | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Galatasaray | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Besiktas | 0–3 | L |
Konyaspor
| 15 Aug | H | vs Rizespor | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Fenerbahce | 2–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kocaelispor | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Erzurumspor | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Trabzonspor | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Erzurumspor (Home · 5 matches) | Konyaspor (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Erzurumspor's home record; away stats use Konyaspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.