Corum vs Alanyaspor — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Corum
44%
top pick
Draw
28%
Alanyaspor
27%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Alanyaspor win 27.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Corum win. Expected goals 1.61–1.22 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 2–1 (8.9%), 1–0 (8.1%). It finished 1–2.
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Corum
| 14 Aug | A | vs Galatasaray | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Kasimpasa | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Besiktas | 2–6 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Eyupspor | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Samsunspor | 5–1 | W |
Alanyaspor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Gaziantep | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Besiktas | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Eyupspor | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Rizespor | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Goztepe | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Corum (Home · 4 matches) | Alanyaspor (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.83 |
Home stats use Corum's home record; away stats use Alanyaspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.