Besiktas come into this in mixed form, alternating wins and losses across their last five, but at home they remain a genuinely dangerous side. They are averaging 1.9 goals scored per home game this season and have kept just two clean sheets in those fixtures, pointing to a team that tends to play open, attack-minded football. Their BTTS rate of 73% at home is well above the Supe Lig average of 55%, and their over 2.5 rate of 73% dwarfs the league norm of 51%.

Fatih Karagumruk sit 18th and are in serious trouble, winning just once in their last five away from home. They have kept a clean sheet in none of their away games this season and are conceding over two goals per game on the road, which makes them extremely vulnerable here.

The data suggests this should be a goal-heavy affair, and given Karagumruk's defensive fragility away from home, Besiktas look well placed to pull clear. This one looks more comfortable for the hosts than the table gap alone implies.