Besiktas vs Erzurumspor — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Besiktas
79%
pick · result
Draw
14%
Erzurumspor
7%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Besiktas win 79.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Besiktas win. Expected goals 2.36–0.78 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (13.3%), 2–1 (13.1%), 1–0 (12.2%). It finished 3–0.
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Besiktas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Corum | 6–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fenerbahce | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Erzurumspor | 3–0 | W |
Erzurumspor
| 16 Aug | A | vs Amedspor | 0–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Galatasaray | 0–4 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Besiktas | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Besiktas (Home · 5 matches) | Erzurumspor (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Besiktas's home record; away stats use Erzurumspor's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.