Basaksehir vs Kasimpasa — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Basaksehir
58%
top pick
Draw
23%
result
Kasimpasa
18%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 23.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Basaksehir win. Expected goals 1.83–0.98 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.1%), 1–0 (11.0%), 2–1 (10.9%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Basaksehir
| 16 Aug | H | vs Kocaelispor | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Trabzonspor | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Kasimpasa | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Galatasaray | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Amedspor | 0–5 | L |
Kasimpasa
| 15 Aug | H | vs Trabzonspor | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Corum | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Basaksehir | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Amedspor | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Genclerbirligi | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Basaksehir (Home · 4 matches) | Kasimpasa (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Basaksehir's home record; away stats use Kasimpasa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.