🇹🇷 Süper Lig·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Basaksehir | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.98 |
| Kasimpasa | 4.89 | 4.89 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketBasaksehir
58%
Draw
23%
Kasimpasa
19%
Basaksehir 1.85 xGexpected goals1.01 xG Kasimpasa
Basaksehir win 58% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.1%).
Basaksehir score at least twice in 56%; Kasimpasa in 27%.
1–1 11.1%2–1 10.6%1–0 10.3%2–0 10.0%0–0 6.3%3–1 6.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Basaksehir goals · columns = Kasimpasa goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Basaksehir clean sheet37%
Kasimpasa clean sheet15%
Basaksehir score 2+56%
Kasimpasa score 2+27%
Basaksehir score 3+28%
Model vs market
| Source | Basaksehir | Draw | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 23% | 19% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Basaksehir
| 17 Aug | H | vs Kayserispor | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Eyupspor | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Besiktas | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Sept | A | vs Fatih Karagumruk | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Alanyaspor | 1–1 | D |
Kasimpasa
| 9 Aug | A | vs Antalyaspor | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Aug | H | vs Trabzonspor | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Gaziantep | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Fatih Karagumruk | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Sept | A | vs Samsunspor | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 24 Apr 26 | BuyuksehyrvsKasimpasa | 4 – 0 |
| 29 Nov 25 | KasimpasavsBuyuksehyr | 1 – 3 |
Basaksehir: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Basaksehir (Home) | Kasimpasa (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | 64.7% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.94 | 2.82 |
Home stats use Basaksehir's home record; away stats use Kasimpasa's away record this season.