Basaksehir vs Galatasaray — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Basaksehir
18%
Draw
21%
Galatasaray
60%
pick · result
Final score
2–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Galatasaray win 60.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Galatasaray win. Expected goals 1.05–1.91 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.9%), 0–1 (10.6%), 1–1 (10.0%). It finished 2–3.
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Basaksehir
| 16 Aug | H | vs Kocaelispor | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Trabzonspor | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Kasimpasa | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Galatasaray | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Amedspor | 0–5 | L |
Galatasaray
| 14 Aug | H | vs Corum | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Erzurumspor | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Goztepe | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Basaksehir | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Kocaelispor | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Basaksehir (Home · 6 matches) | Galatasaray (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | 3.60 |
Home stats use Basaksehir's home record; away stats use Galatasaray's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.