Amedspor vs Besiktas — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Amed
21%
result
Draw
23%
Besiktas
56%
top pick
Final score
3–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Amed win 20.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Besiktas win. Expected goals 1.12–1.80 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.7%), 1–1 (11.0%), 0–1 (10.3%). It finished 3–2.
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Amedspor
| 16 Aug | H | vs Erzurumspor | 3–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Kocaelispor | 0–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Trabzonspor | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kasimpasa | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Basaksehir | 5–0 | W |
Besiktas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Corum | 6–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fenerbahce | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Erzurumspor | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Amedspor (Home · 6 matches) | Besiktas (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Amedspor's home record; away stats use Besiktas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.