Amed vs Besiktas — Süper Lig forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Amed
22%
Draw
24%
Besiktas
54%
Expected goals
1.13–1.76
Amed · Besiktas
Besiktas win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (11.3%), 1–1 (11.3%), 0–1 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Amed score at least twice in 31%; Besiktas in 54%.
Scoreline distribution
Besiktas goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Amed goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Market reference | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Metis Forecast | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amed | 4.32 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.28 | 4.35 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.52 | 4.35 Betano |
| Draw | 3.97 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 4.01 | 4.05 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.42 | 4.05 Betano |
| Besiktas | 1.79 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.82 | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.82 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Besiktas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Eyupspor | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Corum | 6–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fenerbahce | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Erzurumspor | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Amed (Home · no matches) | Besiktas (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.00 |
Home stats use Amed's home record; away stats use Besiktas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.