Alanyaspor vs Goztepe — Süper Lig result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Alanyaspor
44%
top pick
Draw
28%
result
Goztepe
28%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Alanyaspor win. Expected goals 1.49–1.22 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.2%), 2–1 (10.3%), 1–0 (10.0%). It finished 2–2.
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Alanyaspor
| 15 Aug | A | vs Gaziantep | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Besiktas | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Eyupspor | 1–2 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Rizespor | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Goztepe | 2–2 | D |
Goztepe
| 17 Aug | A | vs Samsunspor | 3–3 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Genclerbirligi | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Galatasaray | 2–3 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Gaziantep | 2–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Alanyaspor | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Alanyaspor (Home · 4 matches) | Goztepe (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 4.17 |
Home stats use Alanyaspor's home record; away stats use Goztepe's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.