Sampdoria head into this one in mixed form, winning three of their last five at home but bookending that run with defeats. Their home numbers are notably subdued this season, with BTTS landing just 44% of the time against a league average of 55%, and only 39% of games going over 2.5 goals. They are a side that tends to keep things tight but also struggles to dominate, sitting 14th in the table.

Sudtirol arrive in poor away form, failing to win any of their last five on the road, and their defensive record away from home is shaky, conceding an average of 1.4 per game with a clean sheet rate of just 22%. That said, they do tend to contribute to open games on their travels, with BTTS triggered in 61% of away fixtures.

The limited head-to-head history slightly favours Sudtirol, but form and venue point toward Sampdoria as the more likely winners here. This looks like a closer contest than the table positions suggest, with both sides capable of finding the net.