Pisa vs Virtus Entella — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Pisa
55%
top pick
Draw
28%
Virtus Entella
17%
result
Final score
1–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Virtus Entella win 16.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Pisa win. Expected goals 1.66–0.89 against 1–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 1–0 (12.6%), 2–0 (10.7%). It finished 1–4.
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Pisa
| 23 Aug | H | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 2–2 | D |
Virtus Entella
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Cesena | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Vicenza | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Pisa | 4–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pisa (Home · 5 matches) | Virtus Entella (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Pisa's home record; away stats use Virtus Entella's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.