Pisa vs Sudtirol — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Pisa
61%
Draw
22%
Sudtirol
17%
Expected goals
1.89–0.96
Pisa · Sudtirol
Pisa win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (11.1%), 1–1 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Pisa score at least twice in 57%; Sudtirol in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Sudtirol goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Pisa goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market reference | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 22% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Pisa | 1.60 |
| Draw | 4.15 |
| Sudtirol | 5.42 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Pisa
| 23 Aug | H | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 2–2 | D |
Sudtirol
| 22 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pisa (Home · 5 matches) | Sudtirol (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Pisa's home record; away stats use Sudtirol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.