Pisa vs Palermo — Serie B forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Pisa
36%
Draw
30%
Palermo
34%
Expected goals
1.37–1.40
Pisa · Palermo
Pisa win 36% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.4%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Pisa score at least twice in 40%; Palermo in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Palermo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 14.4 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Pisa goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market reference | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 30% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Pisa | 2.65 |
| Draw | 3.13 |
| Palermo | 2.84 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Pisa
| 23 Aug | H | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 2–2 | D |
Palermo
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Arezzo | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pisa (Home · 4 matches) | Palermo (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Pisa's home record; away stats use Palermo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.