Pisa vs Catanzaro — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Pisa
51%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Catanzaro
20%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Pisa win 51.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Pisa win. Expected goals 1.54–1.00 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (12.7%), 2–1 (11.3%). It finished 2–1 — one of them.
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Pisa
| 23 Aug | H | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 2–2 | D |
Catanzaro
| 21 Aug | A | vs Vicenza | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pisa (Home · 3 matches) | Catanzaro (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Pisa's home record; away stats use Catanzaro's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.