🇮🇹 Serie B·Sunday, 30 August 2026·19:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.34 |
| Catanzaro | 4.73 | 4.73 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketPisa
52%
Draw
28%
Catanzaro
20%
Pisa 1.52 xGexpected goals0.98 xG Catanzaro
Pisa win 52% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13.6%).
Pisa score at least twice in 46%; Catanzaro in 25%.
1–0 13.6%1–1 13.5%2–1 11.8%2–0 9.4%0–0 9.0%0–1 5.1%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Pisa goals · columns = Catanzaro goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score52%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Pisa clean sheet38%
Catanzaro clean sheet20%
Pisa score 2+46%
Catanzaro score 2+25%
Pisa score 3+18%
Model vs market
| Source | Pisa | Draw | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 28% | 20% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Catanzaro
| 24 Aug | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Spezia | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Reggiana | 2–2 | D |
| 26 Sept | H | vs Juve Stabia | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Pisa (Home) | Catanzaro (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 73.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 63.2% |
| Clean sheet | — | 15.8% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.95 |
Home stats use Pisa's home record; away stats use Catanzaro's away record this season.