Padova vs Verona — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Padova
32%
Draw
31%
result
Hellas Verona
36%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 31.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hellas Verona win. Expected goals 1.21–1.23 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.9%), 0–0 (10.2%), 0–1 (10.2%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Padova
| 23 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–2 | L |
Verona
| 23 Aug | H | vs Ascoli | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Padova | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 5–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Benevento | 1–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Vicenza | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Padova (Home · 5 matches) | Verona (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Padova's home record; away stats use Verona's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.