Padova vs Ascoli — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Padova
43%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Ascoli
28%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Padova win 43.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Padova win. Expected goals 1.48–1.21 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.6%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Padova
| 23 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–2 | L |
Ascoli
| 23 Aug | A | vs Verona | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Carrarese | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Padova (Home · 5 matches) | Ascoli (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Padova's home record; away stats use Ascoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.