Monza head into this one in strong shape, picking up three consecutive wins after back-to-back draws, and their home record this season has been built on defensive solidity — a clean sheet rate of 50% and just 0.6 goals conceded per home game underlines how difficult they are to break down on their own patch. Sitting third in Serie B, they carry genuine promotion ambition and the pressure that comes with it.

Empoli arrive in poor form, winning just once in their last five on the road, and their away defensive record is soft — conceding 1.7 per game with clean sheets in only 17% of away fixtures. That vulnerability plays directly into Monza's attacking hands.

The one prior H2H ended level, but context matters less here than current trajectory. Both sides sit well below the league average BTTS rate of 54%, and Monza's low-conceding home profile makes this look like a tight, controlled contest. The hosts appear undervalued given the form gap.