Mantova vs Pisa — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mantova
35%
Draw
29%
result
Pisa
36%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Pisa win. Expected goals 1.32–1.32 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 0–1 (8.4%), 0–0 (8.4%). It finished 2–2.
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Mantova
| 22 Aug | A | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Empoli | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
Pisa
| 23 Aug | H | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mantova (Home · 5 matches) | Pisa (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Mantova's home record; away stats use Pisa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.