Mantova vs Pisa — Serie B forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mantova
33%
Draw
29%
Pisa
38%
Expected goals
1.29–1.36
Mantova · Pisa
Pisa win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.9%), 0–1 (8.8%), 1–2 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Mantova score at least twice in 37%; Pisa in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Pisa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 13.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mantova goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market reference | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 29% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | 2.91 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.73 | 2.82 | 2.75 | 2.63 | 2.73 | 2.52 | 2.91 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.28 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 2.97 | 3.30 Betano |
| Pisa | 2.57 | 2.60 | 2.45 | 2.48 | 2.55 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 2.48 | 2.40 | 2.60 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Mantova
| 22 Aug | A | vs Carrarese | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Empoli | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 2–2 | D |
Pisa
| 23 Aug | H | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mantova (Home · 3 matches) | Pisa (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Mantova's home record; away stats use Pisa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.