Juve Stabia vs Arezzo — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Juve Stabia
54%
Draw
26%
Arezzo
20%
Expected goals
1.68–0.98
Juve Stabia · Arezzo
Juve Stabia win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–0 (11.4%), 2–1 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Juve Stabia win is 1–0 (11.4%).
Juve Stabia score at least twice in 51%; Arezzo in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Arezzo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Juve Stabia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market reference | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Juve Stabia | 1.79 |
| Draw | 3.59 |
| Arezzo | 4.67 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Juve Stabia
| 23 Aug | A | vs Palermo | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sampdoria | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Vicenza | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
Arezzo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Juve Stabia (Home · 4 matches) | Arezzo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Juve Stabia's home record; away stats use Arezzo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.