Hellas Verona vs Vicenza — Serie B forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hellas Verona
52%
Draw
25%
Vicenza
23%
Expected goals
1.69–1.01
Hellas Verona · Vicenza
Hellas Verona win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Hellas Verona win is 1–0 (10.1%).
Hellas Verona score at least twice in 50%; Vicenza in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Vicenza goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hellas Verona goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market reference | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 25% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.89 | 1.93 Betano |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.65 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.16 | 3.74 Pinnacle |
| Vicenza | 4.06 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 3.70 | 3.92 | 3.29 | 4.20 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Vicenza
| 21 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 3–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Verona | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hellas Verona (Home · no matches) | Vicenza (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.33 |
Home stats use Hellas Verona's home record; away stats use Vicenza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.