Hellas Verona vs Pisa — Serie B forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hellas Verona
42%
Draw
27%
Pisa
31%
Expected goals
1.54–1.30
Hellas Verona · Pisa
Hellas Verona win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–0 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Hellas Verona win is 2–1 (9.2%).
Hellas Verona score at least twice in 46%; Pisa in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Pisa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hellas Verona goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hellas Verona | 2.28 |
| Draw | 3.45 |
| Pisa | 3.10 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Pisa
| 23 Aug | H | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Juve Stabia | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–4 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Mantova | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hellas Verona (Home · no matches) | Pisa (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.33 |
Home stats use Hellas Verona's home record; away stats use Pisa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.