Empoli vs Vicenza — Serie B forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Empoli
38%
Draw
29%
Vicenza
33%
Expected goals
1.39–1.25
Empoli · Vicenza
Empoli win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (8.4%), 0–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Empoli score at least twice in 40%; Vicenza in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Vicenza goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 13.7 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Empoli goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 29% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Empoli | 2.49 |
| Draw | 3.36 |
| Vicenza | 2.95 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Empoli
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cremonese | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
Vicenza
| 21 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 3–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Verona | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Empoli (Home · 3 matches) | Vicenza (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Empoli's home record; away stats use Vicenza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.