Empoli vs Arezzo — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Empoli
46%
top pick
Draw
30%
Arezzo
24%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Arezzo win 24.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Empoli win. Expected goals 1.56–1.08 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (9.5%), 2–1 (8.9%). It finished 0–1.
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Empoli
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cremonese | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Mantova | 1–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Arezzo | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
Arezzo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Empoli (Home · 5 matches) | Arezzo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Empoli's home record; away stats use Arezzo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.