Cremonese vs Padova — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Cremonese
50%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Padova
22%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Cremonese win 50.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cremonese win. Expected goals 1.58–1.01 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–0 (11.2%), 2–1 (9.9%). It finished 3–1.
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Cremonese
| 22 Aug | A | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Modena | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Padova | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 0–0 | D |
Padova
| 23 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Verona | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Cremonese | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Ascoli | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Palermo | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cremonese (Home · 5 matches) | Padova (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Cremonese's home record; away stats use Padova's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.