Cremonese vs Juve Stabia — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cremonese
52%
Draw
27%
Juve Stabia
21%
Expected goals
1.49–0.95
Cremonese · Juve Stabia
Cremonese win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.7%), 1–1 (12.8%), 2–1 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cremonese score at least twice in 45%; Juve Stabia in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Juve Stabia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cremonese goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market reference | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 27% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Cremonese | 1.86 |
| Draw | 3.49 |
| Juve Stabia | 4.36 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Cremonese
| 22 Aug | A | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Modena | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Padova | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cesena | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Virtus Entella | 0–0 | D |
Juve Stabia
| 23 Aug | A | vs Palermo | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sampdoria | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Vicenza | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sept | H | vs Cesena | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cremonese (Home · 3 matches) | Juve Stabia (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Cremonese's home record; away stats use Juve Stabia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.