Cesena head into this late-April fixture in patchy form, managing just one win from their last five, while Sampdoria arrive having strung together three consecutive victories on the road. That away momentum is significant, and despite sitting four places below their hosts, the visitors look in considerably better shape right now.

The goalscoring data here is eye-catching. Cesena's home matches have seen BTTS land in 71% of games, well above the Serie B average of 55%, and they've averaged 1.5 goals at both ends in those fixtures. Sampdoria's away clean sheet record is almost non-existent this season, which only adds to the expectation of an open game. Both sides have a tendency to concede, and the data suggests goals are likely regardless of the result.

Given Sampdoria's current form versus Cesena's inconsistency at home, this looks tighter than the league positions imply. The visitors are undervalued heading into this one.