Catanzaro vs Ascoli — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Catanzaro
37%
Draw
30%
Ascoli
33%
Expected goals
1.40–1.29
Catanzaro · Ascoli
Catanzaro win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 0–0 (8.2%), 2–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Catanzaro score at least twice in 41%; Ascoli in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Ascoli goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 14.2 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Catanzaro goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market reference | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 30% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Catanzaro | 2.56 |
| Draw | 3.18 |
| Ascoli | 2.90 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Catanzaro
| 21 Aug | A | vs Vicenza | 2–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Pisa | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Sudtirol | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Sampdoria | 1–2 | L |
Ascoli
| 23 Aug | A | vs Verona | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Carrarese | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Catanzaro (Home · 2 matches) | Ascoli (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Catanzaro's home record; away stats use Ascoli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.