Carrarese vs Arezzo — Serie B forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Carrarese
42%
Draw
30%
Arezzo
28%
Expected goals
1.44–1.14
Carrarese · Arezzo
Carrarese win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (9.8%), 2–1 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Carrarese win is 1–0 (9.8%).
Carrarese score at least twice in 42%; Arezzo in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Arezzo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Carrarese goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Carrarese | 2.26 |
| Draw | 3.21 |
| Arezzo | 3.37 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Carrarese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mantova | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
Arezzo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Carrarese (Home · 4 matches) | Arezzo (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Carrarese's home record; away stats use Arezzo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.