🇮🇹 Serie B·Sunday, 30 August 2026·19:00

Benevento

19:00

— vs 16th

DLLLD

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Benevento	2.14	2.14
Draw	3.13	3.13
Sudtirol	3.78	3.78

Metis Forecast

model + market

Benevento

45%

Draw

30%

Sudtirol

25%

Benevento 1.45 xGexpected goals1.05 xG Sudtirol

Benevento win 45% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 52% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.4%).

Benevento score at least twice in 43%; Sudtirol in 28%.

1–1 14.4%1–0 10.9%0–0 9.7%2–1 9.3%2–0 8.4%0–1 6.9%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	9.7	6.9	4.3	1.6	0.4	0.1
1	10.9	14.4	6.1	2.2	0.6	0.2
2	8.4	9.3	5.2	1.6	0.4	0.1
3	3.9	4.4	2.4	0.9	0.2	0.1
4	1.4	1.5	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

rows = Benevento goals · columns = Sudtirol goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score52%

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Over 4.5 goals11%

Benevento clean sheet35%

Sudtirol clean sheet23%

Benevento score 2+43%

Sudtirol score 2+28%

Benevento score 3+18%

Model vs market

Source	Benevento	Draw	Sudtirol
Raw Metis model	43%	29%	29%
Market (de-vigged)	45%	30%	25%
Metis Forecast	45%	30%	25%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

No recent results.

Sudtirol

24 Aug	A	vs Catanzaro	1–1	D
31 Aug	H	vs Sampdoria	3–1	W
14 Sept	H	vs Palermo	0–2	L
19 Sept	A	vs Frosinone	2–2	D
27 Sept	H	vs Reggiana	3–1	W

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Benevento (Home)	Sudtirol (Away)
BTTS rate	—	57.9%
Over 2.5 rate	—	36.8%
Clean sheet	—	21.1%
Avg goals	—	2.42

Home stats use Benevento's home record; away stats use Sudtirol's away record this season.

Sudtirol →🇮🇹 Serie B standings & fixtures