Benevento vs Sudtirol — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Benevento
46%
top pick
Draw
30%
result
Sudtirol
24%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 30.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Benevento win. Expected goals 1.46–1.04 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 1–0 (11.1%), 0–0 (9.6%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Benevento
| 22 Aug | H | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Verona | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
Sudtirol
| 22 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Benevento (Home · 3 matches) | Sudtirol (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Benevento's home record; away stats use Sudtirol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.