Benevento vs Avellino — Serie B forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Benevento
52%
Draw
26%
Avellino
22%
Expected goals
1.65–1.00
Benevento · Avellino
Benevento win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 1–0 (10.9%), 2–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Benevento win is 1–0 (10.9%).
Benevento score at least twice in 49%; Avellino in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Avellino goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Benevento goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 26% | 21% |
| Market reference | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Benevento | 1.85 |
| Draw | 3.63 |
| Avellino | 4.26 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Benevento
| 22 Aug | H | vs Modena | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Verona | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Carrarese | 1–0 | W |
Avellino
| 22 Aug | H | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Vicenza | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Benevento (Home · 6 matches) | Avellino (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Benevento's home record; away stats use Avellino's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.