Avellino vs Vicenza — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Avellino
40%
pick · result
Draw
33%
Vicenza
28%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Avellino win 39.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Avellino win. Expected goals 1.36–1.13 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.6%), 0–0 (10.3%), 1–0 (9.9%). It finished 3–0.
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Avellino
| 22 Aug | H | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Vicenza | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
Vicenza
| 21 Aug | H | vs Catanzaro | 3–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Virtus Entella | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Verona | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Avellino (Home · 3 matches) | Vicenza (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Avellino's home record; away stats use Vicenza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.