Avellino come into this with back-to-back wins after a rough patch, giving them momentum heading into a match that carries genuine playoff implications for both sides. Modena sit two places above them in sixth but have been poor on the road, winning none of their last five away games and conceding regularly. The visitors look vulnerable here despite their stronger league position.

The goalscoring data tells an interesting story. Avellino's home matches produce BTTS in 56% of games, broadly in line with the Serie B average, but Modena away games land under 2.5 goals in two thirds of fixtures, well below the league norm. Their away clean sheet record is decent, though their attack has struggled to fire on the road. This looks like a game where Avellino's home energy could be the deciding factor, but goals may come at a premium.

The one prior meeting ended level, and with Modena's away form this poor, the hosts look undervalued in what shapes up as a tight but winnable home fixture.