Ascoli vs Palermo — Serie B forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Ascoli
34%
Draw
28%
Palermo
38%
Expected goals
1.32–1.42
Ascoli · Palermo
Palermo win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–2 (8.4%), 2–1 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Ascoli score at least twice in 38%; Palermo in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Palermo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Ascoli goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market reference | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Ascoli | 2.79 |
| Draw | 3.43 |
| Palermo | 2.52 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Ascoli
| 23 Aug | A | vs Verona | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Carrarese | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 3–1 | W |
Palermo
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Arezzo | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ascoli (Home · 5 matches) | Palermo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 4.20 |
Home stats use Ascoli's home record; away stats use Palermo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.