🇮🇹 Serie B·Saturday, 29 August 2026·19:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.54 |
| Carrarese | 4.35 | 4.35 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAscoli
51%
Draw
27%
Carrarese
22%
Ascoli 1.54 xGexpected goals0.96 xG Carrarese
Ascoli win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.9%).
Ascoli score at least twice in 46%; Carrarese in 25%.
1–1 12.9%1–0 12.3%2–1 10.0%2–0 9.9%0–0 9.0%0–1 6.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Ascoli goals · columns = Carrarese goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score50%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Ascoli clean sheet39%
Carrarese clean sheet21%
Ascoli score 2+46%
Carrarese score 2+25%
Ascoli score 3+20%
Model vs market
| Source | Ascoli | Draw | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 27% | 22% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Carrarese
| 24 Aug | A | vs Spezia | 2–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Padova | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Catanzaro | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 3–4 | L |
| 28 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Ascoli (Home) | Carrarese (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 63.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 57.9% |
| Clean sheet | — | 10.5% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.95 |
Home stats use Ascoli's home record; away stats use Carrarese's away record this season.