Ascoli vs Carrarese — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Ascoli
52%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
Carrarese
21%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Ascoli win. Expected goals 1.56–0.95 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (12.6%), 2–1 (10.4%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Ascoli
| 23 Aug | A | vs Verona | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Carrarese | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 3–1 | W |
Carrarese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mantova | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Ascoli | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Empoli | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Catanzaro | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ascoli (Home · 3 matches) | Carrarese (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 1.50 |
Home stats use Ascoli's home record; away stats use Carrarese's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.