Ascoli vs Avellino — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Ascoli
45%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Avellino
26%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Ascoli win 45.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Ascoli win. Expected goals 1.47–1.01 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (10.5%), 0–0 (9.7%). It finished 3–1.
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Ascoli
| 23 Aug | A | vs Verona | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Carrarese | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Benevento | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Padova | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Avellino | 3–1 | W |
Avellino
| 22 Aug | H | vs Arezzo | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Vicenza | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Modena | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Palermo | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Ascoli | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Ascoli (Home · 5 matches) | Avellino (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Ascoli's home record; away stats use Avellino's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.