Arezzo vs Sudtirol — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Arezzo
42%
top pick
Draw
31%
Sudtirol
27%
result
Final score
1–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sudtirol win 26.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Arezzo win. Expected goals 1.41–1.15 against 1–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.0%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.4%). It finished 1–4.
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Arezzo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
Sudtirol
| 22 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Arezzo (Home · 5 matches) | Sudtirol (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Arezzo's home record; away stats use Sudtirol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.