Arezzo vs Sudtirol — Serie B forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Arezzo
42%
Draw
31%
Sudtirol
27%
Expected goals
1.42–1.16
Arezzo · Sudtirol
Arezzo win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.9%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Arezzo win is 1–0 (10.1%).
Arezzo score at least twice in 42%; Sudtirol in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Sudtirol goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 14.9 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Arezzo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 28% | 35% |
| Market reference | 42% | 31% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 31% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arezzo | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.21 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.15 | 2.19 | 2.10 | 2.30 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 3.08 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.08 | 2.89 | 3.10 Bet365 |
| Sudtirol | 3.57 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.41 | 3.45 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 3.04 | 3.57 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Arezzo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
Sudtirol
| 22 Aug | H | vs Virtus Entella | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Benevento | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Catanzaro | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Modena | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Arezzo | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Arezzo (Home · 2 matches) | Sudtirol (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Arezzo's home record; away stats use Sudtirol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.