🇮🇹 Serie B·Sunday, 30 August 2026·17:00

Arezzo

17:00

— vs 4th

DWDWL

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Arezzo	3.94	3.94
Draw	3.11	3.11
Palermo	2.10	2.10

Metis Forecast

model + market

Arezzo

24%

Draw

30%

Palermo

46%

Arezzo 1.08 xGexpected goals1.43 xG Palermo

Palermo win 46% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 53% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.5%).

Arezzo score at least twice in 29%; Palermo in 42%.

1–1 14.5%0–1 11.9%1–2 10.6%0–0 9.5%0–2 8.1%1–0 5.9%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	9.5	11.9	8.1	3.3	1.0	0.3
1	6.0	14.5	10.6	4.3	1.3	0.4
2	4.3	5.3	5.4	2.8	0.9	0.3
3	1.9	2.3	1.4	0.9	0.4	0.1
4	0.6	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0
5+	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0

rows = Arezzo goals · columns = Palermo goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score53%

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Over 4.5 goals11%

Arezzo clean sheet23%

Palermo clean sheet34%

Arezzo score 2+29%

Palermo score 2+42%

Arezzo score 3+10%

Model vs market

Source	Arezzo	Draw	Palermo
Raw Metis model	38%	29%	33%
Market (de-vigged)	24%	30%	46%
Metis Forecast	24%	30%	46%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

No recent results.

Palermo

23 Aug	H	vs Reggiana	2–1	W
30 Aug	H	vs Frosinone	0–0	D
14 Sept	A	vs Sudtirol	2–0	W
19 Sept	H	vs Bari	2–0	W
27 Sept	A	vs Cesena	1–1	D

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Arezzo (Home)	Palermo (Away)
BTTS rate	—	52.6%
Over 2.5 rate	—	36.8%
Clean sheet	—	26.3%
Avg goals	—	2.32

Home stats use Arezzo's home record; away stats use Palermo's away record this season.

Palermo →🇮🇹 Serie B standings & fixtures