Arezzo vs Palermo — Serie B result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Arezzo
25%
Draw
29%
Palermo
46%
pick · result
Final score
2–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Palermo win 46.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Palermo win. Expected goals 1.10–1.42 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 0–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (10.8%). It finished 2–3.
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Arezzo
| 22 Aug | A | vs Avellino | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Palermo | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Verona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Empoli | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Sudtirol | 1–4 | L |
Palermo
| 23 Aug | H | vs Juve Stabia | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Arezzo | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Sampdoria | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Avellino | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Padova | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Arezzo (Home · 2 matches) | Palermo (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Arezzo's home record; away stats use Palermo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.