Udinese vs Lazio — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 7 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Udinese
35%
top pick
Draw
31%
Lazio
34%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Lazio win 34.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Udinese win. Expected goals 1.19–1.20 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.9%), 0–0 (10.6%), 1–0 (9.8%). It finished 1–2.
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Udinese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
Lazio
| 24 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Udinese (Home · 3 matches) | Lazio (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Udinese's home record; away stats use Lazio's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.