Torino vs Como — Serie A forecast, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Torino
19%
Draw
26%
Como
55%
Expected goals
0.98–1.80
Torino · Como
Como win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 0–1 (9.9%), 0–2 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Como win is 0–1 (9.9%).
Torino score at least twice in 26%; Como in 53%.
Scoreline distribution
Como goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Torino goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Market reference | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| Metis Forecast | 19% | 26% | 55% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Torino | 4.89 |
| Draw | 3.55 |
| Como | 1.76 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Torino
| 23 Aug | H | vs AC Milan | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sassuolo | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs AS Roma | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 1–1 | D |
Como
| 22 Aug | A | vs Udinese | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Napoli | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Genoa | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Parma | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Frosinone | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Torino (Home · 3 matches) | Como (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Torino's home record; away stats use Como's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.