🇮🇹 Serie A·Saturday, 29 August 2026·16:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 2.34 | 2.34 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.26 |
| Torino | 3.39 | 3.39 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSassuolo
42%
Draw
30%
Torino
29%
Sassuolo 1.46 xGexpected goals1.18 xG Torino
Sassuolo win 42% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (14.2%).
Sassuolo score at least twice in 43%; Torino in 33%.
1–1 14.2%1–0 9.1%2–1 8.8%0–0 8.6%2–0 7.4%0–1 7.1%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 14.2 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Sassuolo goals · columns = Torino goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Sassuolo clean sheet31%
Torino clean sheet23%
Sassuolo score 2+43%
Torino score 2+33%
Sassuolo score 3+18%
Model vs market
| Source | Sassuolo | Draw | Torino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 42% | 30% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 30% | 29% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Sassuolo
| 23 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Cremonese | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Inter | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Sept | H | vs Udinese | 3–1 | W |
Torino
| 25 Aug | A | vs Inter | 0–5 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Fiorentina | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs AS Roma | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 8 May 26 | TorinovsSassuolo | 2 – 1 |
| 21 Dec 25 | SassuolovsTorino | 0 – 1 |
Sassuolo: 0W 0D 2L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Sassuolo (Home) | Torino (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.4% | 36.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.9% | 57.9% |
| Clean sheet | 21.1% | 36.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.68 | 2.68 |
Home stats use Sassuolo's home record; away stats use Torino's away record this season.