Sassuolo vs Lazio — Serie A forecast, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sassuolo
32%
Draw
29%
Lazio
39%
Expected goals
1.23–1.35
Sassuolo · Lazio
Lazio win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (9.4%), 1–2 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sassuolo score at least twice in 35%; Lazio in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Lazio goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.7 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sassuolo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Market reference | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 29% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 2.94 |
| Draw | 3.30 |
| Lazio | 2.47 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sassuolo
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monza | 1–2 | L |
Lazio
| 24 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sassuolo (Home · 3 matches) | Lazio (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Sassuolo's home record; away stats use Lazio's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.