Sassuolo vs Juventus — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 34.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sassuolo
18%
result
Draw
23%
Juventus
59%
top pick
Final score
3–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sassuolo win 17.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Juventus win. Expected goals 0.96–1.92 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.9%), 0–2 (10.4%), 0–1 (10.0%). It finished 3–2.
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Sassuolo
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monza | 1–2 | L |
Juventus
| 23 Aug | A | vs Frosinone | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Parma | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Sassuolo | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Atalanta | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sassuolo (Home · 5 matches) | Juventus (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.80 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Sassuolo's home record; away stats use Juventus's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.