Sassuolo vs Fiorentina — Serie A forecast, Monday, 2 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sassuolo
37%
Draw
27%
Fiorentina
36%
Expected goals
1.46–1.39
Sassuolo · Fiorentina
Sassuolo win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–2 (8.8%), 2–1 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sassuolo score at least twice in 43%; Fiorentina in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Fiorentina goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sassuolo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market reference | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 27% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 2.58 |
| Draw | 3.52 |
| Fiorentina | 2.64 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sassuolo
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Torino | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Bologna | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Juventus | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monza | 1–2 | L |
Fiorentina
| 24 Aug | A | vs AS Roma | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Frosinone | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Napoli | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sassuolo (Home · 3 matches) | Fiorentina (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Sassuolo's home record; away stats use Fiorentina's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.