Parma vs Udinese — Serie A forecast, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Parma
32%
Draw
30%
Udinese
38%
Expected goals
1.19–1.32
Parma · Udinese
Udinese win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 0–1 (9.5%), 0–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Parma score at least twice in 34%; Udinese in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Udinese goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Parma goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market reference | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 30% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Parma | 2.96 |
| Draw | 3.21 |
| Udinese | 2.50 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Parma
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
Udinese
| 22 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Monza | 3–2 | W |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Lazio | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Inter | 3–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Parma (Home · 4 matches) | Udinese (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 5.33 |
Home stats use Parma's home record; away stats use Udinese's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.