Parma vs Genoa — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Parma
30%
result
Draw
32%
Genoa
38%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Parma win 30.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Genoa win. Expected goals 1.14–1.30 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.3%), 0–0 (10.6%), 0–1 (9.6%). It finished 2–1.
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Parma
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
Genoa
| 22 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Parma (Home · 5 matches) | Genoa (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.80 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Parma's home record; away stats use Genoa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.