Parma vs Genoa — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Parma
30%
Draw
32%
Genoa
38%
Expected goals
1.14–1.30
Parma · Genoa
Genoa win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (15.2%), 0–0 (10.4%), 0–1 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Parma score at least twice in 31%; Genoa in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Genoa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 15.2 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Parma goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market reference | 30% | 32% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 32% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 3.19 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.21 | 3.05 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.12 | 2.81 | 3.21 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.03 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.12 | 3.05 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 3.04 | 2.81 | 3.12 1xBet |
| Genoa | 2.56 | 2.55 | 2.45 | 2.60 | 2.55 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.53 | 2.38 | 2.60 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Parma
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
Genoa
| 22 Aug | H | vs Napoli | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Como | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Frosinone | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Parma | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Parma (Home · 3 matches) | Genoa (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Parma's home record; away stats use Genoa's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.