Parma vs Bologna — Serie A forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Parma
21%
Draw
27%
Bologna
52%
Expected goals
1.03–1.67
Parma · Bologna
Bologna win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 0–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Bologna win is 0–1 (10.8%).
Parma score at least twice in 27%; Bologna in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Bologna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 12.8 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Parma goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 27% | 47% |
| Market reference | 21% | 27% | 52% |
| Metis Forecast | 21% | 27% | 52% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Parma | 4.50 |
| Draw | 3.52 |
| Bologna | 1.84 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Parma
| 22 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Juventus | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Monza | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 2–1 | W |
Bologna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Parma (Home · 5 matches) | Bologna (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.80 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Parma's home record; away stats use Bologna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.