Napoli vs Lazio — Serie A forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Napoli
47%
Draw
25%
Lazio
28%
Expected goals
1.68–1.26
Napoli · Lazio
Napoli win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 2–1 (9.7%), 1–0 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Napoli win is 2–1 (9.7%).
Napoli score at least twice in 50%; Lazio in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Lazio goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Napoli goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Market reference | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 25% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Napoli | 2.05 |
| Draw | 3.82 |
| Lazio | 3.34 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Napoli
| 22 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Inter | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Lazio
| 24 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Genoa | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Udinese | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs AC Milan | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Venezia | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Napoli (Home · 4 matches) | Lazio (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Napoli's home record; away stats use Lazio's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.