🇮🇹 Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·16:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 2.62 | 2.62 |
| Draw | 2.97 | 2.97 |
| Como | 3.18 | 3.18 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketNapoli
37%
Draw
33%
Como
30%
Napoli 1.37 xGexpected goals1.19 xG Como
Napoli win 37% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (15.6%).
Napoli score at least twice in 39%; Como in 33%.
1–1 15.6%0–0 9.8%1–0 8.3%0–1 8.0%2–1 7.6%1–2 7.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 15.6 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Napoli goals · columns = Como goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Over 4.5 goals12%
Napoli clean sheet30%
Como clean sheet25%
Napoli score 2+39%
Como score 2+33%
Napoli score 3+16%
Model vs market
| Source | Napoli | Draw | Como |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 37% | 33% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 33% | 30% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Napoli
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sassuolo | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Cagliari | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Sept | H | vs Pisa | 3–2 | W |
| 28 Sept | A | vs AC Milan | 1–2 | L |
Como
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Bologna | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Genoa | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sept | H | vs Cremonese | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 2 May 26 | ComovsNapoli | 0 – 0 |
| 1 Nov 25 | NapolivsComo | 0 – 0 |
Napoli: 0W 2D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Napoli (Home) | Como (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.9% | 36.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.2% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 36.8% | 47.4% |
| Avg goals | 2.68 | 2.32 |
Home stats use Napoli's home record; away stats use Como's away record this season.