Napoli vs Bologna — Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 31.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Napoli
53%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Bologna
21%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Napoli win 52.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Napoli win. Expected goals 1.65–1.04 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (11.0%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Napoli
| 22 Aug | A | vs Genoa | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Como | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Inter | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Fiorentina | 1–1 | D |
Bologna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lazio | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Atalanta | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sassuolo | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Napoli | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Torino | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Napoli (Home · 4 matches) | Bologna (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Napoli's home record; away stats use Bologna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.